What are the stock picks of Diwali 2016

New Year New luck?

One or the other stockbroker may have thought to himself when the champagne glasses sounded: “New year, new luck!” Finally, in the last quarter of 2018, investors were badly shaken. Quite a few should therefore be happy that this difficult year on the stock market is finally over. It will be interesting to see whether 2019 will be a better year. The cautious easing of the trade war between the USA and China is certainly positive. However, the road to a viable solution is still rocky. A ceasefire is by no means a peace treaty. And in day-to-day business, too, things didn't go smoothly everywhere.

End of the tech boom?

First Apple shocked, then Samsung had to follow suit with a profit warning for the past quarter. Especially with the (former?) Stock exchange darling from Cupertino, the audience reacted sniffly. Both companies cited the sluggish China business as the main reason. And there hardly seems to be any improvement in sight. Because - regardless of the armistice - the first signs of a clear slowdown in the Chinese economy can be seen. Should the economy there actually cool down further, this will leave its mark on the global market. Realistically, last year's trade war is also likely to have left its mark. The dominant question for the current reporting season is therefore whether the recent tech boom has passed its zenith. Then the last quarter of the stock market could only have been a foretaste of further adversity. It is not only important for our traders to find the right answers for new scenarios.

Fully invested but defensive

Jens Höfer (“Bonnet”) gives such an answer with his wikifolio “All Asset Invest”: “If you spread, you don't slip!” This is an old stock market adage and in fact his wikifolio is broadly diversified. The portfolio currently comprises over 60 individual stocks across all industries and countries, as well as half a dozen ETFs. The individual stocks are selected by means of technical analysis, with an investment rate of almost 100% being the target. Nevertheless, the wikifolio is positioned defensively, because the equity quota is just under 20%. The main positions are the iShares MSCI World Min (imum) Vol (atility) and a short ETF on the DAX.


Despite the large number of positions, Höfer does not lose track. Not only did he generate a very good + 9.2% over the past twelve months, but his strategy also earned him the “Good Money Manager” award.

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Cash is king

Another focus is Christian Nüchter (“Dapang”) with his wikifolio “Earnings Per Share Surprise Trader”. Companies are included here that caused a positive surprise in the last quarter. Nüchter is assuming two things: On the one hand, he expects these companies to continue to surprise positively in the future. On the other hand, he is betting that more investors will come on board because the stocks in question are comparatively cheap against the background of positive surprises. There is no particular industry or investment focus in Nüchter's strategy.

However, his approach almost automatically brings him to those companies and industries in which things are going better than was generally expected. In critical situations, you can also invest in short ETFs. At the moment, however, the sideline is Nüchter's preferred place. There is only one share in his wikifolio, that of the biotech company Amazon. The cash quota is a whopping 99%, enough money to react quickly to interesting opportunities. The fact that Nüchter - viewed very soberly - has a good nose for tricky stock market situations, is evidenced by a performance of +8% over the year.

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A system for profit

Frank Elsner ("TradingBrothers"), on the other hand, relies on a sophisticated system with his wikifolio "TradingBrothers Trading System RD": The stock selection is based on various factors such as market leadership, solid business model, established upward trend and steady dividend payments. In principle, it is possible to invest worldwide, but Elsner wants to focus primarily on the USA and Europe, and above all on Germany and Switzerland. Gold can be added to hedge and / or a short ETF can be used. Caution is currently also reigning at Elsner. The cash holdings make up more than half of the portfolio.

The largest individual positions are Carl Zeiss Meditech, MasterCard and the Danish medical company ColoPlast. Over the past twelve months, Elsner still achieved respectable growth of + 2% despite the turbulence on the stock market.

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What's coming?

Investors should keep this in mind

In the coming week there are some trend-setting company data: Citigroup (Monday, January 14th), JPMorgan (Tuesday, January 15th) and BlackRock (Wednesday, January 16th), some heavyweights in the financial industry, are announcing their quarterly figures.

In addition, the decisive parliamentary vote on Brexit will take place on Tuesday. “Deal or no deal” is the question here, the answer to which is likely to have a significant impact on the markets in the short term. On Thursday, the Chinese GDP figures will provide more information about the economic situation in the Middle Kingdom.

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